Where you won't shop in 2009

[Squid]

While industry executives and shoppers will remember 2008 as the year the party ended, figure 2009 to be the year of the hangover. Already, Circuit City, Linens 'N Things and Mervyn's stores are going away. Sharper Image is too, though the company will continue to sell some of its high-end gadgets through license agreements with other retailers.

More pain is on the way. One-third of U.S. women recently surveyed by America's Research Group said they plan no clothing purchases--none--in 2009. Normally, it's just 4%. That means the market is still far too saturated with stores.

Expect closings and bankruptcies to rattle the likes of Lane Bryant, Gap, and Starbucks. It's the inevitable counterpunch to the days of retailers fighting hand over fist for market share during an era of loose credit and minuscule interest rates.

Those days are over, probably for a long time. While accelerating unemployment will only last so long, consumers' debt loads and credit access don't figure to recover to pre-party levels for quite awhile.

"I don't think we will live the same way for 10 years," says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of New York-based retail consultant and investment bank Davidowitz & Associates. "People are so scared they're starting to save."

Retailers at risk in 2009, he thinks, include outerwear specialist Eddie Bauer and teen-apparel-seller Pacific Sunwear, along with Zales, the big jewelry chain. All three shuttered at least 8% of their U.S. stores last year, with many more closings expected. The same is largely true of Charming Shoppes, the owner of Lane Bryant, which closed 150 stores last year. With a mountain of debt and losses totaling over $260 million over the most recent 12-month reporting period, the company will close another 100 locations this year.

Another possible casualty: Sears Holdings, operator of Sears and Kmart stores. A key to hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert's 2005 merger of the two chains was in the underlying real estate. But with those values down 30% or so since then, slumping sales hit even worse.

"I'd be surprised if Sears-Kmart makes it through the year," says Britt Beemer, who runs retail market-research firm America's Research Group.

Non-apparel specialists like Starbucks and Sprint Nextel won't be going away, but they will close hundreds more stores during the coming year, Davidowitz predicts. Narrow specialties (Sprint's cellphones) and high prices (Starbucks' coffee) are tough sells as the consumer mood turns thrifty. What plagues Starbucks will also affect other upscale goody chains like Mrs. Fields' Cookies, and causal dining outlets like Applebee's and Cheesecake Factory. Any of the neighborhood outlets for those restaurant chains could be a casualty this year. For too many customers now, it's McDonald's or bust.

Davidowitz doesn't think a huge government stimulus will help. Better to let things bottom out naturally before regrouping. "Obama's plan will make it worse," he says. "We got into this by borrowing and stimulating, now he wants to borrow and stimulate more."

In Pictures: Where You Won't Shop in 2009

Charming Shoppes (owner of Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherines)
Specialty: Women's plus-size
2008 closings: 150 (6% of total)
Outlook: Lots of debt, performance is terrible (losses of over $260 million for the 12 months ended in November 2008). The company already said it will close at least 100 more stores this year. Who knows if it can survive?

Eddie Bauer
Specialty: Outerwear
2008 closings: 29 (8% of total)
Outlook: The specialty retailer catering to 30- to 54-year-olds is on the critical list as losses mount and shares trade at 50 cents.
Ultimately unlikely to make it.

Timberland
Specialty: Outdoor Apparel
2008 closings: 40 (16% of total)
Outlook: Not on the critical list, but expect significantly more closings.
The footwear company is still sponsoring this year's Sundance Film Festival.

Ann Taylor
Specialty: Women's apparel
2008 closings: 60 (6% of total)
Outlook: After 180 layoffs, the women's clothing chain announced an additional 57 store closings over the next two years.
Relatively healthier than other struggling retailers, but figures to shrink further.

Zales/Piercing Pagoda
Specialty: Jewelry
2008 closings: 105 (12% of total)
Outlook: Absolutely in free fall, more closings for sure.
Zales may not make it.

Click here for the full list of Who's Set to Shutter Stores?

[AmericanMetal]

As long as Best Buy, Kohl's & Target stay open, I'll survive. A lot of shoppers are heading online where the selection's better than in local stores. Especially if you're in a smaller market, where clothing retailers don't get hot inventory right away, and have to wait until it's past its prime before they get their share.

[crimsonblack]

I wouldn't be surprise with any K-Mart closings. The stores have the most depressing worn exteriors and prices that do not keep you returning. Target blows as well. I prefer hitting Wal-Mart - wide range of material and generally cheaper than anyone else.

In Vegas the casinos are struggling. It sucks for the residence with so many jobs disappearing. But it has sucked ass for a while with five major corporations owning most of the casinos. Stations properties; Park Place; Harrahs; Coast and MGM. It's gotten bad enough that Stations is filing for bankruptsy and MGM and Harrahs may be selling off some of there properties. In the long haul this could be better for Vegas with us having owners on one or two pieces of property rather than 5 to ten of them.

Fresh and Easy stores have popped up everywhere in 2008. I think at least 50% of those may be closing soon. No business to pay extra for the "natural" foods. If it's so natural why does it cost more? Beats the hell out of me. Some Apple stores have been closing in our area as well. specialty stores are in big trouble.

[yellowshaker04]

c'mon tim, you know you buy all your pimp wear in the mens department at kmart.

reminds me of a song we use to sing

im gonna walk right down to K-mart and buy some shoes.

they only cost a dollar 92.

think of the beat of eddy grant singing electric avenue. lmao

[cdog02mustgt]

another you wont be shopping is Circuit City. Its been almost one month on the 8th. I worked their for almost 5 years and will miss it.